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Crypto Revolution: Trump’s Pro-Crypto Pivot, Ethereum ETF Approval, and the New T+1 Settlement



Donald Trump's Pro-Crypto Stance: A New Chapter for U.S. Crypto Policy

In a surprising turn of events this past week, former President Donald Trump, who has previously shown skepticism towards cryptocurrency, expressed support for the crypto community. Trump announced his commitment to ensuring that the future of cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin, will be "made in the USA." He also emphasized his support for the right to self-custody for the nation’s 50 million crypto holders. This significant shift in Trump’s stance marks a pivotal moment for the U.S. crypto landscape, potentially signaling a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.

Trump's history with cryptocurrency has been marked by skepticism despite his involvement in launching NFT collections. His recent public endorsement of crypto suggests a growing recognition of the industry's potential and its importance to the economy. This acknowledgment from a high-profile political figure could lead to increased mainstream acceptance and support for cryptocurrency innovation in the United States.


ETH ETF Approval: A Milestone for Ethereum

In a landmark development for the cryptocurrency market this week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the spot Ethereum ETFs filed by major financial firms, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, Ark, Invesco Galaxy, and Franklin Templeton. These approvals come after the firms amended their forms to exclude staking from their products, paving the way for their S-1 registrations to be approved and trading to commence.

The approval of Ethereum ETFs is expected to have a significant impact on the market. Analysts predict that this move could lead to a substantial price increase for Ethereum, with some forecasting a potential 60% surge to $6,000. Furthermore, this decision might clarify Ethereum’s regulatory status as a non-security, although it could render ETH tokens held in funds less productive compared to their use in staking or smart contracts.


The FIT21 Bill: Paving the Way for Crypto Regulation

On Wednesday, May 22, 2024, the United States House of Representatives voted 279-136 to pass the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21). This is the first crypto-related legislation to clear one of the chambers of Congress. The bipartisan support the bill has attracted in the House has led to favorable comment on its chances of passage in the Senate.

The FIT21 bill aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry. Despite criticism from SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who argues that the bill could allow crypto firms to evade oversight, the strong support in the House indicates a significant step toward regulatory clarity. The Biden administration has expressed concerns about the bill’s current form, particularly regarding the protection of consumers and investors. However, there is a willingness to work with Congress to achieve regulatory clarity. The passage of the FIT21 bill could be a crucial step towards a more defined and transparent regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the United States.


T+1 Settlement: A Game Changer for Stock Trades

Starting this week, on May 28, 2024, the settlement cycle for U.S. securities trades will shorten from two business days (T+2) to one (T+1). This change is driven by advancements in technology and the preferences of modern investors. For many, the transaction process will feel instantaneous, but the underlying mechanics of trade settlement are undergoing a significant transformation.


Understanding Trade Settlement Cycles

  • Transaction Date: The day you execute a trade.

  • Settlement Date: The day the trade becomes official, involving the transfer of payment and securities.


Key Implications of T+1 Settlement

  1. Investment Timing: Shorter settlement cycles can influence portfolio and trading decisions, particularly for those needing precise timing for proxy votes or annual meetings.

  2. Margin Accounts: Investors with margin accounts must ensure funds are available on the settlement date to avoid interest charges.

  3. Tax Considerations: With T+1, there is less time to correct cost basis decisions, impacting tax strategies.

The shift to T+1 settlement aligns with similar moves in Canada and Mexico, marking a broader trend towards more efficient and faster financial markets.


Broader Market Trends

In addition to these significant developments, the crypto market continues to evolve rapidly:

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs: These products have seen substantial inflows, reflecting growing investor interest.

  • Crypto ETPs: WisdomTree announced the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs on the London Stock Exchange.

  • Legislative Developments: The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting a dollar-backed Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).


Conclusion

The past week has been transformative for the crypto and financial markets. Trump's newfound support for cryptocurrency, the approval of Ethereum ETFs, the FIT21 bill's progress, and the shift to T+1 settlement cycles are all significant milestones. These developments highlight the dynamic nature of the financial landscape and the growing acceptance and integration of digital assets into mainstream finance. For investors, staying informed and adapting to these changes will be crucial in navigating this evolving market.

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